Days of rain across Florida as tropical moisture arrives and increases the flood threat.

Forecasters believe a strengthening El Niño pattern is likely to emerge in 2026 and continue into winter, thus influencing temperature and precipitation trends across the United States.

While stormy western and interior patterns continue to start the week, we are looking toward a substantial increase in moisture, which could bring numerous showers and storms for several days.

Preliminary data from the National Weather Service Surf Zone Fatalities tracker show that there have been 6 fatalities from rip currents. The winds bring a big risk for the holiday.

Florida’s first big beach-and-boat weekend is also one of its easiest weekends to underestimate. Lightning can strike while the sun is still out nearby, thunder means you are already close enough to be hit, and the safest shelter is not a tent, pavilion, or golf cart.

If you plan to travel to the beach this Memorial Day Weekend, it is advised to stay out of the ocean due to high waves. Frequent rip currents are expected across the entire east coast of Florida and the Panhandle. Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday and Sunday with rain showers on Memorial Day. Expect this weekend to also be hot and humid with high UV and heat indices.

A high-pressure system will keep the fronts well north of Florida, but energy impulses will bring rounds of storms that will affect different regions of Florida.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts below-normal activity as an impending El Niño will lead to increased wind shear across the basin.

Florida’s rainy season doesn’t begin all at once, and it doesn’t behave the same way all summer. It tends to build across the state, then shift through three distinct phases.

The weather pattern changes in Florida as the rainy season starts. Rain is needed and welcomed.