While the U.S. remains forecast to be directly affected by three to six hurricanes before the Nov. 30 end of the hurricane season, the meteorology company AccuWeather on Thursday scaled back predictions for the season.
AccuWeather earlier forecast 13 to 18 named storms, but eased that projection to 13 to 16 named storms. Also, it had predicted seven to 10 storms reaching hurricane strength but reduced that to six to nine storms.
“Unusual surges of dry air, Saharan dust, disruptive wind shear, cooler water temperatures off the western coast of Africa, and other atmospheric conditions have hampered multiple tropical waves from developing into tropical storms or hurricanes, during what are typically the peak weeks of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a prepared statement.
DaSilva said concerns remain because of “exceptionally high water temperatures in the Gulf” that could cause storms to rapidly intensify. “The waters are dangerously warm,” DaSilva said.
“This surplus of energy in the Gulf can act like rocket fuel. If a storm spins up or moves into the Gulf, and atmospheric conditions are conducive for development, these warm waters can support rapid intensification, and even cases of extreme rapid intensification.”
The forecast changes came as only six named storms have formed since the June 1 start of the season, and as seas have been unusually quiet during the past week. A tropical wave was forecast to form off the coast of Africa on Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center. The Atlantic produced 18 named storms last year, of which 11 became hurricanes. Three hurricanes hit Florida. In July, Colorado State University researchers revised their forecast for the season from 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes, to 16 named storms, with eight reaching hurricane status. An average season is considered 14 named storms with seven hurricanes.