Florida's rainy season ends with lingering drought despite October downpours and historic November flooding

The 2026 rainy season may be over climatologically, but uneven rainfall has left different parts of Florida heading into the dry season under very different conditions. This article also examines the early November deluge that hit parts of Florida. Florida's 2026 rainy season ended with sharp rainfall differences across Central Florida, North Florida, and the Panhandle. While some areas saw unusually heavy October rainfall, others entered the drier months still facing significant precipitation deficits. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the transition also brought cooler temperatures and lower humidity as fall cold fronts began replacing summer's daily thunderstorms.

Central Florida: A dry finish to the rainy season

Central Florida experienced below-normal rainfall during September, raising concerns about lingering drought conditions. According to NWS Melbourne, Orlando International Airport recorded just 2.57 inches of rain in September, compared with a normal 6.37 inches, leaving a deficit of 3.80 inches. Although thunderstorms occurred on 21 days, measurable rainfall fell on only 14, highlighting how uneven summer rainfall can be.

The Orlando area received 19.39 inches of rain between June and September, with August recording the most rainfall of the four months. Based on the 1991–2020 climate normals, Orlando averages 29.57 inches of rain during this period.

NWS Melbourne identifies October 15 as the median start of the dry season for Orlando and Daytona Beach. As cold fronts began bringing drier air into the region, opportunities for daily thunderstorms diminished, leaving some communities with lingering rainfall deficits.

Parts of Central Florida receive more rain in the first four days of November than during much of the rainy season

Brevard County experienced historic rainfall and catastrophic flooding during the first few days of November 2026, despite the climatological rainy season having already ended. According to the National Weather Service in Melbourne, persistent easterly winds and an upper-level disturbance produced repeated rounds of torrential rainfall beginning November 1. Preliminary storm totals from the NWS Weather Prediction Center reached 24.69 inches near Malabar, 22.75 inches near Grant-Valkaria, 22.00 inches near Palm Bay, and 20.84 inches near Melbourne Beach.

Melbourne International Airport also recorded approximately 13.70 inches, while locations farther north, including Titusville, received more than 10 inches. Titusville ended the 2026 rainy season with 38.83 inches of rain, compared with an average of 29.4 inches. For reference, Melbourne averages 28.63 inches of rain during the June–September rainy season. In 2026, the Melbourne area received 25.75 inches during those four months. This means Melbourne received nearly half of its average rainy-season rainfall during just the first four days of November.

The extraordinary rainfall triggered catastrophic flooding across southern Brevard County, with some areas experiencing rainfall amounts associated with a 1-in-100-year event. This refers to a rainfall event with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year at a particular location. By November 5, the heaviest rain had ended, but floodwaters were still receding. The NWS warned that prolonged flooding along the St. Johns River could worsen as runoff continued moving through the basin. The event demonstrated that even after Florida's traditional rainy season ends, atmospheric disturbances can still produce extreme rainfall and dangerous flooding.

Tampa Bay: An exceptionally wet October

The rainy season ended much wetter across portions of West-Central Florida. According to NWS Tampa Bay, Sarasota-Bradenton recorded 9.76 inches of rain in October, compared with a normal 2.76 inches, making it the fifth-wettest October on record. Tampa received 5.47 inches, more than double its normal 2.34 inches, making it the city's 11th-wettest October. St. Petersburg recorded 4.99 inches, compared with a normal 2.16 inches.

On average, Tampa receives 30.24 inches of rain between June and September. However, the same four-month period in 2026 was drier than average, with just 26.39 inches of rainfall recorded.

Rainfall varied considerably across the region. Fort Myers received only 1.21 inches in October, well below its normal 3.08 inches.

Cooler, drier air arrived during the second week of October, signaling the transition away from the summer thunderstorm pattern. NWS Tampa Bay identifies October 10 as the typical end of the rainy season across most of West-Central Florida.

North Florida: Jacksonville soaked before fall weather arrived

Jacksonville experienced an exceptionally wet start to October. According to NWS Jacksonville, the city recorded 11.23 inches of rain during the first 14 days of October, compared with a normal 2.61 inches, a surplus of 8.62 inches. By October 14, Jacksonville had received 15.52 inches of rain since September 1, more than five inches above normal. However, rainfall dropped off sharply during the second half of October as cooler, drier air moved into the region. On October 19, Jacksonville's average temperature was 63 degrees, seven degrees below normal, reflecting the arrival of fall weather.

Unlike Central Florida, North Florida's rainy season ends less clearly, with cold fronts becoming an increasingly important source of rainfall during fall and winter.

Jacksonville's 2026 rainy season was also slightly drier than average. The city typically receives 28.81 inches of rain between June and September, but recorded only 25.16 inches during that period in 2026. Gainesville averages 25.69 inches of rain over the same four-month period. In 2026, the city received 21.48 inches, with August being the wettest month, recording 11.35 inches.

Florida Panhandle: Heavy rain provides partial drought relief

Across the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend, October also brought significant rainfall. According to NWS Tallahassee, the city received 6.71 inches of rain during the first 10 days of October, compared with a normal 1.21 inches, a surplus of 5.50 inches. Despite the heavy rainfall, Tallahassee remained 11.13 inches below normal for the year as of October 10. Cooler, drier air signaled a shift away from summer thunderstorms toward rainfall associated with passing cold fronts.

Between June and September 2026, Tallahassee received only 19.41 inches of rain, compared with an average of 27.41 inches, a deficit of 8.00 inches. The city recorded no additional measurable rainfall through October 27, illustrating how quickly conditions changed. Temperatures also reflected the seasonal transition. Tallahassee reached 91 degrees on October 1 before overnight lows dropped to 42 degrees on October 21 and 22.

Drought concerns remain as Florida enters the dry season

Despite October's heavy rainfall in several locations, drought remained an important concern. A statewide precipitation analysis based on NOAA data showed that Florida received approximately 82% of its normal September rainfall, while northern Florida received just 58%.

By September 29, approximately 52% of Florida was experiencing some level of drought. Fall cold fronts arriving in October helped end the persistent summer thunderstorm pattern, but the transition was far from uniform. For Central Florida, the rainy season ended with lingering rainfall deficits. Tampa Bay and Jacksonville saw unusually wet October conditions, while Tallahassee received significant early-month rainfall that didn't erase its year-to-date deficit. As Florida moves deeper into November, rainfall will increasingly depend on cold fronts and larger weather systems rather than daily afternoon thunderstorms.

Still, the rainy season started very dry; in fact, it was already in a drought that began in fall 2025. For context, check out how the drought started with the map released on June 2 and compare it to the map which contained data until September 29, 2026.