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Above average rainfall and higher temperatures expected across Florida this fall season

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Fall officially begins at 8:05 PM EDT tonight, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS explains that during the Autumnal Equinox, both hemispheres receive an equal amount of sunshine. While the Northern Hemisphere begins the fall season today, the Southern Hemisphere is entering their spring season. For Florida, this means days will get shorter, and nights will become longer. Additionally, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts above normal precipitation amounts and temperatures for the entire state of Florida throughout October, November, and December.

National Weather Service
Total precipitation normals based on NWS monthly climate data from 1991 until 2020.

During a regular fall season, rainfall amounts tend to trend the highest throughout October and lowest throughout November. The Miami area stays the wettest in October while Tampa stays the driest for both October and November. Tallahassee takes the lead in precipitation for December, and Miami stays the driest.

Climate Prediction Center

This autumn, North Florida and the Big Bend are forecasted to be the wettest regions with totals 60% to 70% above normal. The additional moisture is a result of a strong El Niño season. However, the tip of South Florida is expected to remain the driest region with precipitation amounts ranging between 33% to 40% above normal.

National Weather Service
Mean average high temperatures based on NWS monthly climate data from 1991 until 2020.
National Weather Service
Mean average low temperatures based on NWS monthly climate data from 1991 until 2020.

Temperatures are normally the warmest in October and the coldest in December for each Florida region in the fall. Miami trends the warmest, and Tallahassee trends the coldest for high and low temperatures.

Climate Prediction Center

Temperatures this season are expected to lean above average across the whole state, anywhere from 33% to 40% warmer than average. Usually, El Niño seasons bring us cooler temperatures.

This fall is forecasted to be warmer and wetter. Flooding chances may increase over the next three months in areas that receive higher than normal rainfall. In addition, the strong El Niño could put the state at a higher risk for severe weather. FPREN meteorologists will provide more updates about this season in the future.

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Audrey Shirley is a multimedia meteorologist who most recently provided coverage for WRCB Local 3 News in Chattanooga, Tennessee. She served as a broadcast meteorologist, multimedia journalist and weather producer. Previously she spent time at WLFI-TV News 18 in West Lafayette, Indiana. She is proficient in the NOAA HYSPLIT modeling system and WSI and Baron Weather Graphics.