The arrival of Sept. 10 marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season - the date that has the highest likelihood of tropical development. But this September follows a pattern that has been in place most of the season - being inactive.
Through mid-month, the season has produced just five named storms, zero hurricanes and the lowest amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or what is known as ACE, on modern record.
ACE is a metric that measures the total energy produced by tropical cyclones over their lifetimes by accounting for both intensity and duration. Long-lived hurricanes produce far more ACE than weaker storms that dissipate quickly.
A pending historic El Niño event has certainly helped put the brakes on tropical activity.
Wind shear across the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean has been at record levels, beating every other year during the satellite era.
If no hurricane forms by Friday, which is likely at this point without an area being highlighted by the National Hurricane Center for development, it would be the first season in the modern era to have not produced a hurricane.
The last time a season concluded without a hurricane was back in 1914 and 1907 - years that did not have satellites and upgraded radar systems scanning the skies for tropical cyclones.
Still, there is plenty of the hurricane season left, with roughly 60% of tropical activity occurring beyond the Sept. 10 date.
The time period from mid-September into early October typically features some of the most optimal conditions for the formation of tropical cyclones across the Atlantic basin.
Tropical cyclones can form all year long, but the latest Florida has been threatened by a significant system was Nov. 21, 1985.
Despite being late in the season, Hurricane Kate struck the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 cyclone in late November.
More recently, Hurricane Nicole struck Florida's east coast as a minimal hurricane on Nov. 10, 2022.
Nicole produced impacts to a large portion of the state, which serves as a reminder that the hurricane season can remain active late into the calendar year.
While activity has been remarkably quiet so far in 2026, one storm can significantly alter the characterization of a season.
Whenever the next storm forms, it will be named Fay, but again, there is nothing brewing on the immediate horizon across the Atlantic basin.
