The Atlantic hurricane season is entering its third month after what has been an up-and-down start, with two named storms, neither of which produced significant amounts of accumulated cyclone energy.
According to NOAA data, more than 85% of all Atlantic tropical cyclones develop during August, September and October, making the three-month period the busiest of the year.
Warmer sea surface temperatures and deeper tropical moisture typically create more favorable conditions for tropical development across the western and central Atlantic later on during the season.
But factors associated with a strengthening El Niño over the Pacific have the potential to suppress tropical cyclone activity across the basin.
El Niño also tends to promote areas of sinking air, drier conditions and stronger upper-level winds, all of which are hostile to tropical development.
The impacts of some of those limiting factors have already been evident with early season development.
Tropical Storm Arthur remained a named storm for less than a full day, and Bertha remained ragged despite being over warm waters of the Gulf.
The storms produced a combined ACE value of 2.6, which is more than 70% below average for this point in the season.
ACE is a metric that accounts for the amount of energy released by a tropical cyclone over its lifetime.
A tropical cyclone that lasts longer and has stronger winds will have a greater ACE value than a system that remains weak and short-lived.
So, while the overall number of cyclones is around average, their overall strength is well below average, which is not particularly a surprise given the ongoing El Niño event.
If the El Niño influences continue, the Sunshine State is unlikely to experience many major tropical impacts during August.
Since official hurricane record-keeping began during the 1800s, neutral ENSO years have produced the greatest number of direct tropical cyclone landfalls during August, while El Niño years have produced the fewest.
According to historical records, there have been just four August tropical cyclone landfalls in Florida in more than 150 years of records, with the most recent being Idalia in 2023.
Other events include Tropical Storm Claudette in 2009, Hurricane Charley in 2004 and Bonnie, which made landfall just days before Charley during the record-breaking 2004 hurricane season.
What to expect during the first weeks of August
Major forecast models indicate the Atlantic basin could remain relatively quiet through at least the next FEW weeks, despite August usually experiencing an uptick in activity.
Long-range guidance from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), show few signs of any organized tropical development.
While the models suggest an occasional tropical wave could move westward across the central Atlantic, none appears likely to develop into a significant cyclone.
Even if a tropical wave emerges, it is expected to encounter one of the most common limiting factors during August: the Saharan Air Layer, commonly referred to as the SAL.
The SAL is a mass of dry, dusty air that periodically moves westward from Africa across the Atlantic.
According to NOAA, the air surrounding a Saharan dust plume contains about 50% less moisture than the surrounding atmosphere, leading to suppressed cloud growth and thunderstorm development.
The next named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be Cristobal, followed by Dolly, Edouard and Fay.
Based on long-term averages, the third named storm of the season typically forms around Aug. 3, with the season's first hurricane usually developing around Aug. 11.
Colorado State University is scheduled to release its final updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook on Aug. 5.
In its previous outlook, CSU called for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, predicting nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, defined as Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
