Tropical Storm Bertha on the Gulf; tropical storm and storm surge watches in effect for parts of Florida

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression Two to Tropical Storm Bertha after NOAA Hurricane Hunters found the system had strengthened during Monday afternoon. Bertha now has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, is moving west-northwest at 5 mph, and has a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.

Although Bertha has strengthened into a tropical storm, its overall organization remains limited. Dry air wrapping into the circulation and strong wind shear of around 25 knots (and increasing over its east and northeast) are expected to prevent rapid intensification as the storm drifts slowly across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Hunters also observed the center wobbling throughout the day as the storm remains trapped between two areas of high pressure, resulting in weak steering currents and an erratic motion. Additional reconnaissance flights are scheduled through Wednesday, and slight adjustments to the forecast track remain possible.

Bertha is expected to continue moving very slowly through Tuesday before gradually turning more westward later this week. The National Hurricane Center continues to forecast a track toward southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday, although the cone of uncertainty still allows for the center to remain offshore. If Bertha spends more time over the warm Gulf waters, some additional strengthening is possible despite the unfavorable environment.

Tropical Storm Watch and Storm Surge Watch in effect for parts of the Panhandle.

Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect from the Florida Panhandle westward to Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, with a Storm Surge Watch extending from the Alabama-Florida border to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin affecting the western Florida Panhandle Monday night, especially from Panama City Beach to Pensacola, before spreading along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, stronger wind gusts are expected near southeastern Louisiana. While no changes were made to the watches in the evening advisory, additional watches or warnings could be issued later tonight or Tuesday.

Bertha's slow movement will prolong impacts across the northern Gulf Coast. Persistent onshore winds could produce up to 3 feet of storm surge from the Florida Panhandle through the central Gulf Coast, including Mobile Bay, while dangerous surf and rough marine conditions continue through midweek. Heavy rainfall will also become an increasing concern, with isolated totals exceeding 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain is expected to shift from the Florida Peninsula into the Florida Panhandle, coastal Alabama and Mississippi, and southern Louisiana as Bertha slowly tracks westward.

Rain chances are still possible on Tuesday across the western portion of the Peninsula, but much lower than previously anticipated as Bertha moves away and the wind shear is keeping its deepest storms closer to the Central Gulf.