A marginal risk for excessive flooding is highlighted across North Florida and the Panhandle for Tuesday. The continued presence of a disturbance in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere crossing Florida, combined with a frontal boundary draped from South Carolina through much of the Gulf Coast, will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day across the Panhandle and North Florida. Although not all areas will experience flooding, locations that have been wetter than average over the past several days and receive repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms—some producing heavy rainfall—could see localized flooding.
Saharan dust will still be present across much of Florida, but more pronounced over South Florida, where rain and storm chances will be almost none.
— Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) (@FloridaStorms) July 14, 2026
Storms on Tuesday, some strong with gusty winds, mainly focused across North and Central Florida. pic.twitter.com/VXOcdHyezj
As of today, parts of Panama City have already received more than half an inch of rain, especially from Apalachicola through Panama City Beach. Areas south of Gainesville have also picked up around one-tenth of an inch of rainfall. Throughout the day on Tuesday, there will be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become strong to severe across parts of North Florida.
However, the greatest severe weather threat, with damaging winds as the primary hazard, will be focused across Central Florida from the Space Coast southward to Palm Beach County, including the Lake Okeechobee region. Metro areas of Southeast Florida, including Broward, Miami-Dade, and the Upper Keys, should remain mostly dry. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for the Tri-County metro area until 7 p.m. Tuesday. Heat index values could reach as high as 109°F.
Across the interior portions of Broward, Miami-Dade, Collier, Monroe, Hendry, and western Palm Beach counties, there could be slight cooling in the afternoon as thunderstorms develop. However, even across Southwest Florida, the heat will remain intense, with heat index values reaching as high as 107°F.
West Palm Beach set a daily rainfall record on Monday, July 13, with 3.70 inches of rain. This broke the previous record of 3.27 inches, which was set in 1905. The record rainfall was mainly due to a nearly stationary thunderstorm that persisted from the afternoon into the evening hours.
Saharan dust is still here!
At times, the sky will not have the crisp blue appearance that is typical before summertime storms. Instead, it may appear hazy because pockets of Saharan dust remain over the region. The dust continues to suppress shower and thunderstorm development across parts of South Florida. In fact, much of South Florida, especially coastal areas from Southwest Florida through Southeast Florida, will remain extremely hot and mostly dry over the next three days as we move toward the end of the week.
The Saharan dust has been present for several days, causing temperatures to soar and setting new afternoon records. On Friday, July 10, Naples set a record high temperature of 97°F, surpassing the previous record of 95°F set in 1973. As for record warm overnight lows, several have already been broken this week across the state. On Monday morning, Miami set a new record warm low of 84°F, breaking the previous record of 82°F set in 1977.
Temperatures across South Florida could approach record levels on Wednesday. Cape Coral could tie its record high of 97°F, set in 1995. Miami could also challenge its record high of 97°F, established in 1981.
It is likely that through the rest of the week, parts of Southwest and Southeast Florida will continue to break or tie record high temperatures while also challenging record-warm overnight lows. In addition, parts of Central Florida could tie or break record warm low temperatures through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with overnight lows expected to range from 77°F to 80°F.
On a climate note, after analyzing more than 250 weather stations across the United States, Climate Central found that record-warm overnight lows are being broken at a faster rate than record-high daytime highs. This indicates that nights are warming more rapidly than daytime highs, leading to new warm-low records being set more frequently. The warming nights in most cities analyzed were made at least twice as likely due to climate change
