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Thanksgiving travel forecast: Where weather delays could be encountered

Photo from Jacksonville International Airport showing the check-in desk.
Photo from Jacksonville International Airport showing the check-in desk.
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JIA
Photo from Jacksonville International Airport showing the check-in desk.

Nearly 82 million Americans are expected to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, and the weather across the country could play a role in whether travelers reach their destinations on time.

Fortunately, no major weather systems appear to be on the immediate horizon, but that won’t prevent some minor interruptions from occurring from coast to coast.

In addition to the weather, air traffic controllers face numerous challenges, including being understaffed, which could exacerbate air travel delays.

Travel experts expect the Sunday after Thanksgiving to be the heaviest day for air travel, with the busiest days for highways being the Tuesday and Wednesday before the holiday.

The quietest day for travel is actually Thanksgiving Day itself, with most people already at their destinations.

The Transportation Security Administration encourages anyone flying domestically to arrive two hours before their departure and three hours before an international flight, though these suggested times can vary by airport.

Airport security passenger count from Thanksgiving 2024.
TSA
Airport security passenger count from Thanksgiving 2024.

Weekend forecast (Nov. 22 – Nov. 23)

  • Travel impact alert: Seattle, Phoenix, New York
    Sunday travel forecast map across country.
    Sunday travel forecast map across country.

The biggest obstacles appear to be centered along the coasts, with much of the country seeing above-normal temperatures.

An area of low pressure over the Southwest is expected to continue producing heavy rainfall in areas that usually don’t see much.

The precipitation is forecast to impact much of southeastern California, Arizona and New Mexico, potentially leading to slick roadways along the I-10 and I-8 corridors.

The formation of a storm system over the Pacific Northwest will result in heavy rain and high-elevation snow, leading to potential delays at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport.

The unsettled weather pattern will keep travel in the Pacific Northwest dicey through the Thanksgiving week.

On the East Coast, a piece of departing energy will trigger a few scattered showers along the I-95 corridor, but amounts are not expected to be heavy and the precipitation will remain below severe-weather criteria.

Monday’s forecast (Nov. 24)

  • Travel impact alert: Seattle, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Little Rock
    Monday travel forecast map across country.
    Monday travel forecast map across country.

The shortened workweek will kick off with energy moving out of the Southwest into the Central U.S., producing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Because temperatures will be well above average, there is no need to worry about wintry weather across the Southern Plains. Instead, thunderstorms will be possible from the Lone Star State northward to Kansas and Missouri.

A severe weather outbreak is not anticipated, but any travel between the Rockies and the Mississippi River Valley could be wet and impact airports in Dallas and Little Rock, Arkansas.

Tuesday’s forecast (Nov. 25)

  • Travel impact alert: Minneapolis, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit
    Tuesday travel forecast map across country.
    Tuesday travel forecast map across country.

The greatest impacts across the country could occur on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a storm system strengthening over the Northern Plains.

Scattered showers will be possible across the Great Lakes, Northeast and Southeast, with even a few embedded thunderstorms.

The heaviest precipitation is expected over the Midwest, affecting cities such as Cleveland, Detroit and Cincinnati.

Rainfall accumulations are forecast to remain below an inch of precipitation.

Enough cold air is expected to wrap into the system for snow showers to be possible over the Dakotas, but because of the warmer air, areas where frozen precipitation will exist will be limited.

Tuesday will also be the best day to travel in states such as Washington, Oregon and Idaho ahead of the approach of another storm system on Wednesday.

Wednesday forecast (Nov. 26)

  • Travel impact alert: Seattle, Nashville, New Orleans, Atlanta, Washington, D.C., Minneapolis
    Wednesday, Nov. 26 travel forecast map.
    Wednesday, Nov. 26 travel forecast map.

The day before Thanksgiving could bring the most inclement weather to major cities, leading to potential travel delays.

Communities such as Atlanta; Columbia, South Carolina; Nashville; and the nation’s capital could all see scattered rain chances

Because temperatures on the eastern side of the front will be warm, the precipitation will fall in liquid form.

Snow showers will be possible for cities such as Minneapolis and Green Bay, but accumulations are expected to be light.

The heaviest precipitation on Wednesday will again be in the Pacific Northwest, with another round of rain and snow.

Thanksgiving Day forecast (Nov. 27)

  • Travel impact alert: Seattle, Baltimore, New York, Boston
    Thanksgiving Day 2025 weather forecast
    Thanksgiving Day 2025 weather forecast

The holiday will be a transition day along the East Coast, with precipitation chances stretching from the Sunshine State through the Big Apple and into New England.

Parts of the Northeast could see the heaviest precipitation as energy from the storm system that traveled through the Great Lakes phases with a new system forming off the coast.

Fortunately, Thanksgiving Day is one of the quietest air-travel days of the year, so many travelers will miss out on weather impacts.

It’ll also be the last day of above-average temperatures for many, as a cold front ushers in a brief cooldown across the eastern half of the nation for Black Friday and the final weekend of November.

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