Florida's arctic blast is on the way; here's your forecast

A blast of unseasonably cold air will take over Florida starting Monday. We forecast the cold front to remain strong enough to sweep across the entire state, bringing frigid temperatures on Tuesday morning. Veterans Day will be marked by temperatures that could be up to 20° below normal in the morning and will also stay well below average for this time of year in the afternoon, and through much of the week. The morning wind on Tuesday will make temperatures feel even colder.

The science behind the "Polar Vortex"

An arctic blast will continue to push across the southeastern United States. A pocket of frigid air will move into the southeast on Tuesday, bringing record-low morning temperatures and cold afternoon highs. Many locations have not experienced such a chilly November 11 in over 100 years. This will definitely be the coldest temperatures we’ve had this season so far, and for many cities, it could be the most frigid temperatures since at least March 2025.

First the storms

There’s a marginal risk for severe weather to continue to push through the Central portions of Florida on Sunday evening. We’ve had a few strong thunderstorms push across the Panhandle, and we expect them to continue pushing through parts of Central Florida on Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday. The cold front is currently pushing across the panhandle during the mid-afternoon on Sunday, and even though it will be crossing South Florida during the early afternoon Monday, the cold air will not sink in across the entire state until Tuesday morning. The high-pressure system to the west will redirect winds from the north, keeping the cold and dry conditions in place for 24 hours starting Monday night. As the front pushes south, we are not expecting widespread thunderstorms across southwest Florida, Lake Okeechobee, or even southeast Florida. There’s only a slight chance for a brief passing shower as dry air becomes more prominent as the front pushes to the south.

Temperatures plummet

Freeze watches are already in effect across parts of the Panhandle. This means sub-freezing temperatures are expected, with lows in the low to mid-20s across portions of the panhandle, from the I-10 corridor through Jacksonville. Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. This watch is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Once we move into Monday, this freeze watch will likely be upgraded to a freeze warning.

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The freeze watch is also in effect across North Florida. Gainesville is likely to experience temperatures that could feel as low as 27°. Appropriate action should be taken Monday night into Tuesday morning, as the cold temperatures could harm tender vegetation and outdoor pets. The young children, the elderly, and the homeless are especially vulnerable to the cold. Please take measures to protect them.

The temperature in South Florida will likely not drop below freezing. Still, it will stay very cold, especially given that these are the most frigid temperatures we’ve had in a while. Temperatures across Central Florida will be in the mid- to upper 30s. Still, in parts of Orange County, Western Kissimmee, Sumter County, and Lake County, temperatures could feel sub-freezing for at least a couple of hours on Tuesday morning. Please monitor the weather closely at your local locations, as brief alerts may be issued.

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Cross-sections of southwest Florida temperatures will remain around the mid-40s on Tuesday morning. At the same time, the I-95 corridor between the Treasure Coast and Southeast Florida will stay between the upper 40s and low 50s. And then locations across Palm Beach County through Miami-Dade County experience temperatures into the upper 40s.

When do we return to normal?

These temperatures will bounce back quickly. By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will still be below average for this time of year, but not as cold or as likely to freeze as they will be on Tuesday morning across the other half of the state. Highs by Wednesday afternoon will return to around the mid-70s across southeast Florida. They will remain below 70° for Central Florida and North Florida, including the Panhandle. The wind will slowly start to shift as the high-pressure system that will first provide northerly winds on Tuesday across much of the state will slowly shift over the state and then eventually east of the state, allowing the easterly wind to come in from the east, moderating the temperatures once again and bringing us closer to normal values for this time of year by the end of the week.