Tropical Depression Nine formed on Saturday afternoon. It is on the verge of becoming Tropical Storm Imelda as it crawls to the northwest at 5 mph. Hurricane hunters are investigating this system Saturday evening.
The track continues to shift slightly east.
— Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) (@FloridaStorms) September 27, 2025
This will not be a direct problem for Florida: high waves, rough surf, beach erosion & high rip currents for the east-central Florida coast. We are closely monitoring it. pic.twitter.com/kG6e4xtrvP
Tropical Depression 9 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is expected to continue its northward track over the weekend, as it gains strength and becomes better defined. Tropical storm watches are in effect from Martin County all the way through the Flagler-Volusia county line. It is possible that watches could be extended northward over to the northeastern coast of Florida.
What’s protecting in Florida?
Many places across Florida have been dealing with isolated showers to intense storms this afternoon. These storms are not associated with the tropical depression located over the southern Bahamas. The storms are related to the sea breeze that has developed due to the heat, and they have mainly affected parts of Port St. Lucie southward to Miami-Dade County. Across the Panhandle and North Florida, the showers are associated with a cold front moving through the I-10 corridor. We can expect more showers and thunderstorms to continue building across parts of Central Florida due to the combination of heat, humidity, and instability coming in from the cold front from the west. A similar pattern is expected to occur on Sunday.
This is the same cold front that is allowing the tropical system to stay away from Florida for the most part. This cold front is losing some of its speed and is expected to transition into a stationary front by the beginning of the week. Therefore, any showers and thunderstorms that develop this weekend will remain associated with both local effects and the cold front. Perhaps if this cold front had not been located where it is, the tropical system would’ve had a different track. But for our benefit, this cold front will continue to keep the most active parts of the tropical system, such as the strongest storms and the strongest winds, well offshore over the Atlantic.
Tropical Depression 9 will continue to move north at a slow pace. The speed is expected to pick up late on Sunday, but it is expected to remain, at least its center, a few hundred miles east of the East Coast of Florida. Future Imelda will travel over the Gulf Stream, which is a warm body of water; therefore, intensification is expected, and by Tuesday morning, we should be referring to Imelda as a hurricane.
Imelda's future track will highly depend on the strength of the cold front. If the cold front stays relatively strong over the southeast, Imelda should be making a turn eastward and moving away from land by the middle of the week. If the cold front becomes weaker, then Imelda could be making landfall somewhere in the Carolinas by the middle of the week. Nevertheless, this storm does not appear to pose a direct problem for Florida.
Indirect impacts for Florida
Parts of the east Central Florida coast are under a tropical storm, extending from Martin County north to the Volusia County line. This was issued out of an abundance of caution, as Imelda is expected to intensify on Monday, and the winds could be relatively strong along the immediate east-central coast of Florida. Seas will be hazardous along the Atlantic coast, with high surf, as well as a high risk of recurrence. The winds could also cause beach erosion across parts of the East Coast to Florida. Parts of Cocoa Beach, Melbourne, and Flagler Beach could have tropical storm-force gusts. Please stay off the waters, primarily through the beginning of this week.
We will continue to monitor the tropics closely and provide you with updates in each complete advisory.