We might sound like a broken record. But we want you to make sure you are weather aware and, most importantly, you are tropical weather aware. As we head toward the peak of hurricane season, we start to notice the tropics waking up.
Although September, historically, is the busiest month of the hurricane season, with an average of three named tropical systems, August is the second busiest month. On average, two named systems develop during August.
August 11 is the average date for the first hurricane to develop. September 1 is the average date for the first major category hurricane to develop. Of course, we are talking about averages. In some years, we have more storms before August 11 than in others. But the main point that you should take away from this note is that the tropics will most likely heat up as we move into the next few weeks.
Mother Nature knows it's August?
Mother Nature seemed to have noticed that we entered August. On August 2, the National Hurricane Center highlights two areas for possible tropical storm development. Although at first glance, these two areas do not represent a threat to the United States. It is a good reminder that Mother Nature is specifically in the tropics, and it’s becoming more active.
The low-pressure system exiting the Carolinas will continue to move northeast. This movement away from land is welcomed by the Carolinas, but keep in mind that there’s a trail of low-pressure systems coming in right after it. These low-pressure systems will all be attached by a stationary front that will keep the instability readily available across the southeast, affecting portions of Central and North Florida, including the Panhandle, through the Carolinas for much of this upcoming week.
This low-pressure system that has a chance to develop will be moving away from the eastern coast of the United States, and the National Hurricane Center gives it a 30% chance of development during the next two days and the same opportunity to develop during the next seven days. The truth is that this system has a very short window to establish, mainly focused on Monday and the first half of Tuesday. After Tuesday, conditions become highly unfavorable for the system to develop, and it moves over the open Atlantic Waters. It does not represent a threat to Florida.
The second area we are watching is a tropical wave that will enter the central Atlantic. With the Bermuda high centered well away from the eastern United States, we expect this system to move over the central Atlantic and stay way away from land.
The Caribbean continues to be under the influence of very dry air and strong wind shear. But keep in mind that the pattern seems to be changing. We will continue to monitor the tropics closely and bring you updates right here and on our radio stations.