Plenty of moisture is streaming in from the Gulf, controlled by a high-pressure system located east of Florida (remember, high-pressure systems spin clockwise, so the moisture is coming in from the south-southwest over northern Florida). This moisture and a series of fronts approaching the Panhandle and North Florida will increase the chance of showers and storms for the rest of the weekend and early next week.
On Sunday, the opportunity for isolated intense storms will be mainly confined to the Panhandle. Although sometimes wet for some, there is no risk for organized severe storms or flood risk. However, the moisture depth increases on Monday as numerous storms develop, and the risk for flash floods increases with more storms becoming more intense. There is also the chance for some storms to turn severe, producing damaging winds and small hail.
More storms will affect the Panhandle on Monday and Tuesday. Pensacola through Jacksonville are under a marginal risk for isolated severe storms that could produce damaging winds. If you have a plan outdoors, please stay weather aware and go indoors when thunder roars. The fronts will not make it over Florida as the high-pressure system will keep those well to the north of Florida, but there will be enough instability around to create the storms. The constant instability and moisture will bring several showers and storms, increasing the flash flood risk across the Panhandle and North Florida. Between Sunday and Wednesday, 2 and 4 inches of rain are possible along I-10, and some isolated spots could receive 5 inches of rain.
The Saharan dust will disperse on Sunday; storms will light up the radar more each day. The rest of the Peninsula will be reigned with a typical summer-like pattern. The wind flow along the Peninsula will be mainly from the southeast, the heat will ignite afternoon storms, mainly over inland locations, which will be taken closer to the west coast by the late afternoon into the early evening by the southeast flow. The heat will be intense, with plenty of humidity around that will make the temperatures feel as if they were between 100 and 105 degrees, especially over inland and western locations, before the storms provide a bit of temporary ´cooling´.
The next impulse of Saharan dust, typical during June, will likely arrive in Florida by the end of the week. This next plume does not seem to be as dense as the one that moved over Florida this past week, but it will likely put a limit on the thunderstorm activity again.