Gaetz resignation sparks political shake-up in Northwest Florida

Updated 11:17 a.m. Nov. 19

The resignation of Rep. Matt Gaetz to serve as attorney general under President-elect Donald Trump has triggered a significant political shake-up in Northwest Florida. Gaetz, a prominent and often controversial GOP figure, leaves behind a contested congressional seat, prompting a scramble among local political figures to fill the vacancy. Gov. Ron DeSantis has ordered an expedited special election, and contenders across the district are positioning themselves for a high-stakes contest.

The special election process will involve a primary followed by a general election. DeSantis has instructed Secretary of State Cord Byrd to announce the schedule as soon as possible. Though expedited, the process will require several weeks to complete, and candidates are already making their moves.

READ MORE: Senate Republicans concerned with Gaetz nomination ask to access House ethics probe

"The short timeline will create significant logistical challenges for local supervisors of elections," Jacob Shively, a political science professor at the University of West Florida, said. "They'll need to be able to get ballots printed and get polling stations prepared and so forth. So that may be the slowest part of the process—getting those logistics squared away."

Shively added that the compressed timeline will benefit candidates with established name recognition and resources, as they can more effectively rally their supporters.

Western District Contenders: A Crowded Field

Several candidates from the Pensacola area have already confirmed their interest in running for Gaetz's seat.

Escambia County Clerk of Court Pam Childers said Thursday that she was strongly considering running. Childers, who has served as Clerk and Comptroller for more than 10 years, emphasized her focus on bringing integrity to higher office.

"I've been a good steward in this community," Childers said. "I don't believe you have to come from Tallahassee or have been walking the halls in Tallahassee to do good things for our country," Childers said. "... What I'd like to see for our country is a good steward of policies and not self-interest, not self-promoting people that just want the job to be somebody. I want people of integrity to step up."

She added, "I'm a Republican, but it doesn't mean I always vote party line. I think it's about people and whether they align with your values, your goals, your position on issues."

State Rep. Michelle Salzman was also among the first to publicly announce her consideration of a run. On Tuesday, Nov. 19, she made it official by announcing on Facebook that she had filed to run.

"I want to do what is best for our country and helping President Trump with the Make America Great Again Agenda," she said.

Escambia County Commissioner Mike Kohler, a veteran and nurse, has also stepped forward. Kohler emphasized his qualifications and experience with the area’s military bases, positioning himself as a candidate who can unify the region.

"I think I bring a skill set that would unite people," Kohler said during a radio interview on Thursday.

RELATED: 'I was shocked': Lawmakers react to Gaetz pick to be Trump's attorney general

Some prominent figures have already ruled themselves out of contention. State Sen. Don Gaetz, the father of Matt Gaetz, was initially seen as a strong potential contender. In a recent interview, however, the elder Gaetz made it clear he has no intention of running for Congress.

"I've had about a dozen potential candidates call me last night and this morning," Don Gaetz said, "and so I know there's a lot of interest in the race. We need a strong candidate, and a strong candidate will emerge from a crowded field. It's an opportunity for people to show their wares."

He added, "The people of Northwest Florida have just given me the privilege of representing them in the Senate. It's the job I sought. It's the job I want. It's the job I'm good to fill."

State Rep. Alex Andrade, former state Rep. Jayer Williamson, and current Pensacola Mayor D.C. Reeves have also ruled themselves out.

"While I'm honored to be mentioned for a role in federal leadership, my heart remains in Pensacola," Reeves said in a statement released Thursday afternoon. "I made a promise to this city two years ago, and I intend to keep it. I will continue to dedicate my full energy and effort to making Pensacola the best it can be."

Other potential contenders from the western part of the district include former Pensacola mayors Ashton Hayward and Grover Robinson, outgoing Florida State Sen. Doug Broxson, former State Rep. Frank White and State Attorney Ginger Bowden Madden, though none have confirmed publicly they are considering running.

Among political insiders, Hayward is seen as one of the strongest contenders, with support from a wide range of political heavyweights and the existing infrastructure to be competitive in such a snap election.

Eastern District Contenders: No Clear Frontrunner

Unlike the crowded field in Pensacola, no major candidates have emerged as frontrunners from the eastern end of the district. However, several prominent names have been mentioned, including Okaloosa County Commissioner Carolyn Ketchel, Okaloosa County School District Superintendent Marcus Chambers, Destin resident John Frankman, Niceville resident Jeff Witt, and State Rep. Patt Maney.

Frankman appears to be the only candidate to have fully committed to run. The former Green Beret, who served eight years as a U.S. Army Captain with the 7th Special Forces Group, is positioning himself as a staunch advocate of Northwest Florida's conservative values and a committed America First candidate.

"Northwest Florida deserves a leader who will unapologetically stand up for our conservative values and keep our voice front and center in Congress," Frankman said in post announcing his campaign. "... I’ll work tirelessly to defend our freedoms, support President Trump’s agenda, and put Americans First."

Frankman pointed to his military service, particularly his decision to voluntarily separate from the Army in 2023 over the COVID-19 vaccine mandate—a stance he calls his "proudest moment in uniform." Notably, he was a guest of Matt Gaetz at the 2024 State of the Union address, underscoring his alignment with Gaetz's brand of politics.

Destin Mayor Bobby Wagner, who became one of Florida's youngest mayors when he was elected two years ago, said on Thursday that he was considering running, as well, though as an independent.

"It’s likely that this is going to be a very crowded primary full of many Republicans that are all in that same family of doing what's told, playing the game of pawnship and being able to move up when they are told to move up," Wagner said. "... I am just another working-class citizen like everyone else and I am not here to play political games. I'm here to bring tax dollars back to the Panhandle and make sure that our infrastructure can be fixed and that I can make sure that we have representation at D.C."

RELATED: Jeered in Washington by his fellow Republicans, Rep. Matt Gaetz gets cheers back home

Though not a Republican, Wagner has described himself as a fiscal conservative who is "moderate when it comes to personal choices."

Jacob Shively, commenting on Wagner’s potential run, noted, "It's unlikely, but there is a possibility that a strong, well-known Independent candidate may either make a strong run for the seat or maybe divide the Republican vote and create an opening for a Democrat who's running."

Shively also noted that the lack of clear frontrunners from the eastern end of the district could set the stage for a dark horse to emerge.

"It is probably the case that the folks in the Gaetz family and the Trump orbit are thinking about who they would like to see in that seat," Shively said. "... They may have a preferred candidate, but you can always have a dark horse who is able to make an appeal for change, if you will, or is able to bring together the resources."

One such dark horse might have already emerged. Witt, a former Harvard quarterback and Air National Guard fighter pilot who leads F-35 training for Lockheed Martin at Eglin Air Force Base, has close ties to the Trump administration. His brother, Patrick Witt, served in the previous Trump administration, was endorsed by President Trump in 2022, and now serves on the Trump-Vance transition team and as COO of the America First Policy Institute.

A High-Stakes Contest

With Gaetz’s departure, Northwest Florida is set for a heated and competitive special election. The confirmed contenders and potential candidates reflect a mix of political experience and perspectives—all vying for an opportunity to represent a district crucial to the GOP’s influence in Florida.

"This is a snap election," Don Gaetz said. "It will come down to who can get the most support in the shortest period of time and make their case most convincingly."

"The big question here is not just having name recognition," Shively added, "but somehow having a lane somewhat distinct from the others. So you may have a handful of people who are making the case that 'I'm the MAGA candidate' or 'I'm the natural inheritor to Gaetz,' but if you have several of those splitting that vote, then you may end up with somebody who is less obvious pulling out ahead."

Shively also emphasized the broader implications of the election: "We'll definitely see a trickle-down effect throughout the district as a number of people are looking at the position. And then if it is somebody in an existing office, of course, they'll vacate that office and then we'll have the same process again, but just at a lower level."