A New Week A New Storm Threat
UPDATE: A Flood Watch is in effect from Walton to Lafayette counties, valid through Thursday morning. In these areas, widespread rainfall accumulations between 2 and 4 inches are expected, however locally higher amounts are likely over areas with training thunderstorms.
Like clockwork, another storm system is developing over the Plains, and it will bring the threat for severe storms east into the Sunshine State starting Tuesday.
On Monday morning, an area of surface low pressure was developing over northern Texas while a mid level trough was dipping from Southern California into Baja California and Sonora. Over the next 24 to 36 hours, energy from the latter feature will help the former to develop as it propagates eastward.
A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms should develop and push through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday morning. The tail of the system, which will likely manifest itself as a squall line of thunderstorms, should arrive to the western and central portions of the Panhandle Tuesday afternoon, the Big Bend by the evening, and North Florida on Tuesday night.
The environment is modeled to be similar to that of last week's system and the ingredients for all modes of severe weather will be in place. Those in the Panhandle and North Florida, especially near and north of I-10, should be prepared for strong storms that could potentially produce tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight-line winds. This first cluster of storms should weaken late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Through the remainder of the workweek, the mid level disturbance over Baja and Sonora will remain in place, while at the same time a stronger mid level low will develop over the Upper Plains. Winds around the latter will steer a parade of mid level energy from the Baja trough over the Gulf of Mexico and into the Sunshine State on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. This should trigger several more rounds of potentially strong storms across the Panhandle, North and Central Florida.
Flooding will accompany the threat for straight-line winds, tornadoes, and large hail, as environment will be seeping with humidity from the Gulf of Mexico. Those areas that received above average rainfall in March, namely the Panhandle and North Central Florida, will be at particularly high risk for flash flooding.
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