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Chances Of Tropical Development Increasing In The Gulf, But It's Likely Not A Threat

A tropical system may form in the southern Gulf of Mexico this week, but current forecast data suggests it is unlikely to be a significant threat to Florida.

A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche became slightly better organized Sunday, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center now give it a "medium chance" of become a tropical depression or storm in the next five days. Little change in the environment surrounding the disturbance is expected through Tuesday, but thereafter a tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula could enhance nearby thunderstorm activity and be the catalyst to cyclone development.

The potential tropical development, identified by meteorologists as Invest 92, is not an immediate or significant threat to Florida at this time. Long range forecast data suggests the system would be steered north and not northeast, placing the Texas and Louisiana coastlines more at risk of direct impacts. However, in this scenario, an abundance of tropical moisture on the system's east side has the potential of reaching the Sunshine State by the end of the week, and indirect tropical impacts such as heavy rain and high seas could not be ruled out.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a disturbance off the coast of South Carolina was also identified by the National Hurricane Center in their Sunday afternoon tropical outlook. It was referred to as a "non-tropical" area of low pressure with only a "low chance" of gradual tropical development as it moved away from the United States.

June is a relatively quiet month in the tropics when compared to the busier months of August, September and October. However, it's not uncommon for tropical storms to form in both regions identified for possible development in the coming days. The next named storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season would acquire the name Bill. The first storm of the year, Tropical Storm Ana, was a preseason development that developed near Bermuda on May 22.

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