Colorado State University researchers on Wednesday downgraded their projections for the hurricane season.
Already anticipating a “somewhat below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season when the first forecast came out April 9, the research team now expects strong “El Niño” weather conditions that hamper storms.
“Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the school’s researchers stated. “We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”
Vertical wind shear usually weakens or disrupts storms.
The school’s forecast now predicts 11 named storms, down from 13 in the April projections. Five storms are forecast to reach hurricane strength, with winds at or above 74 mph, instead of the six predicted earlier. The number of storms reaching major strength — Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of 111-mph or greater — remained at two.
An average storm season, which runs June 1 to November 30, has 14 to 15 named storms, with seven reaching hurricane strength.
Hurricane experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put out a forecast on May 21 that called for 14 named storms, with three to six reaching hurricane strength.
The meteorological company AccuWeather has predicted 11 to 16 named storms for 2026, with four to seven reaching hurricane strength.
In 2025, the Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four reaching Category 3 — winds of 111 mph to 130 mph, and storm surge of 9 feet to 12 feet above normal tide.
None of the 2025 storms, though, made a direct landfall in Florida or the U.S.
From 2022 to 2024, Florida took direct hits from six hurricanes, including four that were Category 3 or stronger.