Summertime and the livin' is hot and humid.
Although we've had a couple cooler days thanks to some much-needed rain, that kind of temperature for June is becoming more rare.
"For Florida, if it wasn't for the rainfall, what we understand using the science is that you wouldn't experience temperatures below average in the 70s and in the 80s," said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central.
First thing to note for summer 2026 is an El Niño climate pattern could bump up the temperature. And right now, the Gulf is so warm, it's adding moisture into the air, which makes it harder to cool off.
Winkley added that human-induced global warming is also heating things up.
"Doesn't mean that you won't have a few below average days, doesn't mean that you won't have some reprieves, or that it's going to be record heat the entire time," Winkley said.
"But we know that at the end of summer our temperatures will likely be much warmer than what we expect them to be, which is compared to the last 30 years of weather."
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Between 1991 and 2020, the average temperature across entire state of Florida has been 80.5 degrees for June, July, and August combined. In Tampa, it's been 83.6 degrees, while being 82.8 in Sarasota.
And since 1970, Tampa's summer temp has increased on average by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and in Sarasota it's 2.8.
"That may not sound like a lot, but think about your body — when your body warms three degrees, you're on the couch, and you don't feel well. Essentially, our summers have a fever," Winkley said.
And nighttime summer temperatures across the country are warming almost twice as fast as daytime temps are.
Climate Central found that out of 243 cities analyzed across the U.S., 97% of those have experienced some sort of summer warming since 1970.
In the Tampa Bay region, you now experience almost 50 extra days of above-average temperatures in your summer, which is on average 64% of the entire season.
Our morning temperatures are also running about eight to 10 degrees above average.
"Starting the day in the upper 70s and low 80s, that's even warmer than where you should be in Florida," Winkley said. "This kind of unusual warmth even in June is becoming much more common."
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Using what's called the Climate Shift Index, Winkley's calculated that this heat is made five times more likely because of climate change.
"This comes at a Climate Shift Index of five - that's the top of the scale," he said. "Essentially, they would be almost impossible without a fingerprint of climate change."
Winkley also pointed out which Florida cities have the fastest warming summers: Tallahassee is in the top spot, Sarasota is number two, and Tampa is third just ahead of Miami.
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