As the calendar rolls into July, the Atlantic hurricane season enters its second month, still albeit with limited tropical activity.
Water temperatures are typically warmer, and atmospheric patterns begin becoming more supportive of tropical systems, which can serve as the bridge between the quieter part of the season and the heart of activity that arrives later in the summer.
The National Hurricane Center says it is monitoring an area that has a low potential for development off the Southeast as a frontal boundary lingers over the warm water.
Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as the disturbed area of weather drifts westward over the next week.
July has produced several notable tropical systems, including systems that have impacted the United States, but for Florida, the threat of a direct landfall only generally materializes once every seven years.
According to NOAA historical data from across the entire basin, July typically produces about one to two named storms, with a hurricane forming roughly once every three years.
The level of activity is significantly lower than what occurs during August, September and October - the months that make up the seasonal peak for tropical development.
Since record keeping began in the 1850s, only 27 tropical cyclones of tropical storm or hurricane strength have made landfall in Florida during the month of July.
Only one of those July landfalls occurred during an El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO.
The current climate pattern is considered to be an El Niño, which influences everything from wind shear to water temperatures across the world’s basins.
The most recent tropical storm to directly impact Florida during July happened back in 2021 with Tropical Storm Elsa.
Elsa made landfall along Florida’s Big Bend as a strong tropical storm on July 6 but caused problems up and down the state’s Gulf Coast.
Communities along the west coast of Florida experienced 2 to 4 feet of storm surge and 6 to 12 inches of rain.
Severe weather was also problematic along and east of the storm’s track, leading to nearly two dozen reported tornadoes and an overall damage estimate of more than $700 million.
The last significant cyclone to strike the Sunshine State during the month of July was Hurricane Dennis back in 2005.
Dennis was a major hurricane when it washed ashore the Florida Panhandle, causing more than $2 billion in damage across the southern U.S.
Florida’s busiest month for tropical impacts typically aligns with the peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs in September.
So far during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, only one named storm has formed - Tropical Storm Arthur.
Arthur developed in the western Gulf in mid-June but remained a relatively disorganized system as it produced heavy rainfall across parts of Texas and Louisiana.
The next named storm of the season will be Bertha, but there are no signs of it forming anytime soon.
During an average season, the second named storm typically does not form until around July 17, with the first hurricane not forming until August.
