The Sunshine State typically receives around 55 inches of rain per year, but when precipitation falls below average, drought conditions can take hold and last for an extended period.
This scenario is exactly what is happening now, with many communities across Florida’s 67 counties that have not seen typical rainfall patterns since 2025, leading to drought conditions that in some areas are considered to be exceptional.
The dry conditions have led to issuance of water restrictions and dozens of wildfires igniting in swamp beds that are usually full of water.
The driest region is along the Interstate 10 corridor, stretching from around Tallahassee eastward to Jacksonville.
Long-term deficits in this region are running between 20 and 30 inches of precipitation, with some officials calling the lack of rainfall "historic."
Thanks to significant rainfall late last year, Central Florida is faring somewhat better, with some areas running deficits closer to only 5 inches of precipitation.
Most other communities are experiencing rainfall deficits in the 7-12" range.
For much of the state, a rainfall event producing 10 to 20 inches would help erase long-term deficits, but that amount represents several months’ worth of rain on top of what is normally needed.
For many, the only weather system capable of reversing the drought would be a tropical system - with none in the forecast for months, if at all, especially with an expected El Niño event during the heart of the hurricane season.
According to historical records, the rainiest tropical cyclone to ever impact Florida was Hurricane Easy in 1950.
The hurricane dropped a staggering 45.20 inches of rain over Florida's Big Bend region, making it the wettest cyclone in the state’s recorded history.
More recently, Hurricane Milton in 2024 only produced around 18.87 inches of rainfall in St. Petersburg, while Hurricane Irma in 2017 dumped 16.08 inches over Hillsborough County.
So, in the driest parts of the state, a typical hurricane would not even be enough to completely resolve the current drought situation.
Additionally, during flash flooding or torrential rainfall, much of the water runs off instead of soaking into the ground, limiting its effectiveness in combating a drought.
It is widely considered to be more beneficial to receive rainfall over an extended period rather than all at once in order for the terrain to take full advantage of the precipitation.
That is why Florida's prolonged rainy season is considered to be critical to water resources, with daily thunderstorm activity developing in late May and persisting into early September.
The status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly known as the ENSO, can play a significant role in determining how active the rainy season is.
During weaker El Niño events, much of the state typically sees less precipitation than normal during the summer months, while stronger El Niño events often bring increased rainfall, especially during the late fall and winter.
