Although most of the state remains in a steady drought, about 9% of Florida is currently experiencing the worst level of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Over the past two weeks, conditions across Florida—especially North Florida—have worsened, with an expansion of exceptional (Level 4) drought along a large portion of the I-10 corridor.
The week ending March 19 showed only about 1.6% of the state under exceptional drought, mainly across parts of North Florida just east of Tallahassee. However, in the latest report released on March 26, the drought has expanded from Alachua County westward to Calhoun County, west of Marianna.
This is the worst drought Florida has experienced since records began in 2000. Many regions have been running rainfall deficits of over a foot since late last year.
"Month-to-date totals across Northern Florida sit at a dismal 25% of normal or less. This combination of dry weather and elevated temperatures exacerbated short-term SPI/SPEI, streamflow, and soil moisture deficits. Consequently, exceptional drought (D4) expanded from southern Georgia into northern Florida."US DROUGHT MONITOR
Is the drought expected to improve?
The short answer is no.
South Florida is expected to receive some rain from Friday through the weekend, with most of it falling on Sunday as a cold front moves through the state. However, as the front pushes through, conditions will remain very dry across North and Central Florida.
Moisture arriving from the south will bring showers and a few isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly across parts of Southwest Florida. This is one of the regions with the most extreme water restrictions currently in place. The entire area is under extreme drought, extending eastward into parts of Southeast Florida. Rainfall totals in Southwest Florida, including cities such as Naples and Cape Coral, could range from 1 to 2 inches. Southeast Florida may see anywhere from a trace up to 1 inch of rain between Sunday and Monday.
The good news is that the cold front will likely stall over South Florida into early next week, which could provide additional moisture and instability through Monday.
After Monday and into late next week, a high-pressure system will maintain an easterly flow, likely keeping any isolated showers focused across Southwest Florida and interior areas.
If the drought continues to worsen, it is likely to persist through next week. In fact, long-range models for April suggest that much of Central and North Florida will remain below average in rainfall. Looking ahead to May and June, we typically begin to see a shift toward a wetter pattern. Florida’s wet season begins at different times during May, depending on location.
Make sure you are following any water restrictions in place for your county or region.
Keep in mind that winds will also be strong throughout this weekend and into early next week, which could enhance any fires that develop. With the ongoing drought, vegetation is very dry and can easily fuel wildfires. Avoid any activities that could spark fires, and if you do, ensure they are completely extinguished.