SEOUL – The biggest feud between Japan and China in more than a decade appears to be escalating, with China trying to isolate Japan diplomatically, as punishment for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks last month about Japan's possible involvement in a conflict over Taiwan.
No end to the spat is in sight, and neither side shows signs of climbing down.
In recent weeks, China has tried to persuade leaders of the U.S., the U.K. and France to support its position. It argues that "Taiwan's return to China is an integral part of the post-war international order," as Chinese leader Xi Jinping told President Trump in a Nov. 24 phone call. Trump, meanwhile, made no mention of the Taiwan issue in a social media post about the call.
The diplomatic push is just part of a coordinated campaign employing political, economic and cultural tools. China has sent two letters of protest to the United Nations. It has halted seafood imports from Japan, advised Chinese citizens not to travel there, and canceled movie screenings and concerts.
Experts say the context of Takaichi's remarks is key to understanding the Japan-China spat.
Japan's constitution prohibits it from waging war. But 2015 security legislation allows it to use its military in self-defense, in response to an armed attack on Japan, or an attack on an ally (it only has one formal ally, the U.S.) that poses an existential threat to Japan. The U.S. and Japan signed a mutual defense treaty in 1960.
CLARITY OF LEGISLATIVE OVERSIGHT VS. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY
The Japanese prime minister and Cabinet have lots of leeway to decide what constitutes an existential threat, but they need parliamentary approval.
During a parliamentary budget committee hearing on Nov. 7, opposition lawmaker Katsuya Okada asked Takaichi under what circumstances a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could threaten Japan's survival. Takaichi replied that a blockade involving Chinese warships could possibly constitute such a threat.
"Your answer doesn't narrowly define an existential threat," Okada shot back. "It gives the government very broad discretion. That's why I'm concerned."
The U.S., China and Japan have all been ambiguous about how they might act in a potential conflict over Taiwan. But in this case, lawmakers sought clarity and tried to pin Takaichi down, to avoid getting Japan into an unnecessary conflict.
"I think deep in her heart, she [Takaichi] should have realized that she made a mistake. And it's a very costly, costly mistake," says Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, and a former People's Liberation Army senior colonel.
Takaichi has since promised not to discuss any hypothetical scenarios about Taiwan. But she defended herself in parliament last week, stating that while she could have played it safe, she wanted to be forthcoming.
"If I had just kept repeating the government's previous position over and over, the budget committee session could have been suspended," she said, but, "I was asked to provide specific examples, and I tried to respond faithfully."
TAKAICHI WASN'T ALONE
Takaichi is not the only leader to veer off script and appear to contradict a policy of strategic ambiguity.
President Joe Biden did it no fewer than four times. Each time, the White House walked back the remarks, insisting there was no change in policy.
So why has China launched a pressure campaign against Japan, but not the U.S.?
Tokyo University political scientist and China expert Akio Takahara offers one possible explanation.
"Why? Because they think America is stronger and they don't want to upset the United States."
But if the U.S. is ambiguous about its commitment to defend Taiwan, could Japan possibly defend Taiwan on its own?
That's the troubling implication that Takaichi's remarks make, argues Tsinghua University's Zhou Bo.
"Given the disparity of military strength between China and Japan, that is simply impossible for Japan to do that. So this time, we have an interesting situation, that the tail is wagging the dog."
CYCLES IN JAPAN-CHINA TIES
Another important bit of context, Akio Takahara says, is that Japan and China have had many ups and downs in their relationship, and so, he argues, ties will eventually bounce back.
He adds that in some ways, China's reaction to perceived offenses by Japan are milder than before.
"This time they are not allowing any demonstrations," he notes, "and they're not allowing any boycotting of Japanese products."
That was not the case in 2012. Japan purchased from a private owner the disputed Diaoyu Islands, as China calls them, or the Senkakus in Japanese.
Protesters took to the streets in over 100 cities across China. Today, China's government is less tolerant of demonstrations, especially those that can quickly turn against it.
Trump has said that his relations with Takaichi are good, but he has not mentioned the dispute with China, or spoken in support of Takaichi.
Japan's government has denied reports that Trump told Takahashi not to escalate the feud with Japan.
JAPAN'S FEARS OF BETRAYAL
But some Japanese are worried that Trump might might cut a deal with China that sells out Taiwan and Japan.
"If it's a kind of a deal that sells out Taiwan, it won't be good for Japan," South Korea or the United States, says Takahara. "We don't know what Trump is going to say tomorrow," he adds. "So we are worried. But what can we do?"
For now, Beijing continues to insist that Prime Minister Takaichi take back her remarks. She has refused to do that, but says she's open to negotiations with Beijing. But Zhou Bo says Taiwan issue is too important for China to compromise on.
"It includes so many things, honor, dignity," and a "century of humiliation," during which 19th century imperial powers carved up China into spheres of influence.
"There is no way China will just back down," Zhou says, "so the ball is in the court of the Japanese."
In past the, experts note, China has let disputes with governments including South Korea, Australia and the Philippines fester, until a new administration comes in and makes appeasing gestures.
But Takaichi just took office last month, and depending on her political fortunes, waiting her out could take a long time.
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