The debate over what to do with more than 500 acres of public land known as OLF-8 has long been a source of controversy in Escambia County. Now, as commissioners consider selling the entire parcel to a private developer, an economic analysis has raised the stakes—to the tune of $1 billion.
The analysis, conducted by the Haas Center at the University of West Florida at the request of FloridaWest Economic Development Alliance, explored two development options for a 46-acre portion of the 530-acre OLF-8 site: one focused on light industrial development and a second focused on residential and retail mixed-use.
The findings paint a stark contrast between the two scenarios: the light industrial development would generate approximately $1.3 billion in total economic output over five years, with $10.8 million in local tax revenue and 1,550 direct, indirect, and induced jobs, amounting to $445.5 million in total personal income. In contrast, the residential and retail option would produce only $159 million in total economic output and just $2.3 million in tax revenue over the same period.
"The county and the city would forego that tax revenue if they opt to just build homes, retail, and a couple of restaurants on those 46 acres of land," said Nicole Gislason, director of the Haas Center.
The Haas Center analysis used common economic modeling techniques to estimate the impact. However, it's important to note that the results have not been independently peer-reviewed. The analysis was initiated after a facilitated discussion on OLF-8 by the Business Alliance, a relatively new organization chaired by UWF President Martha Saunders and J.T. Young, Vice President and General Manager for Florida Power & Light's Northwest Florida region. Rick Byars, interim head of FloridaWest, invited the Haas Center to model both scenarios based on that discussion.
Development Alternatives
The DPZ Master Plan, which was developed with extensive community input and adopted as a guiding framework for OLF-8, sought to strike a balance between residential, retail, and job-creating uses. It envisioned a mix of development that would provide new housing and community amenities while also ensuring significant opportunities for economic growth through light industrial and commercial activities.
Now, Escambia County commissioners are weighing whether to sell the entire 530-plus acres to a private developer, a decision that could shift this vision. Several offers are already on the table, including one from Jim Wilson & Associates, which is partnering with local developer Chad Henderson of Catalyst Healthcare Real Estate and former Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward. Their proposal would create a mixed-use development that includes retail, entertainment, office spaces, hotels, medical facilities, and light industry—incorporating elements of the DPZ Master Plan.
Another competing proposal is from Beulah Town Center, led by Tampa developer Fred Hemmer and local architect Brian Spencer. They previously offered $25 million for 290 acres of the property and are now preparing a new offer for the entire parcel. They've stated they aim to align closely with the DPZ Master Plan.
While selling the property would not preclude light industrial development or meeting job creation goals, Gislason said it could change the incentives involved in the property's development and limit the county's ability to affect the outcome.
"Once a commercial developer gets ahold of this scarce resource, naturally he or she is going to develop it and sell it at a much higher price," Gislason explained, adding that the highest economic return for a developer might not be the highest economic return for the community.
Job Creation and Economic Diversification
“One of the things that my colleagues have considered in the business alliance is the possibility that another party assumes control of OLF-8 and then enables job creation to take place on specific parcels that are already imagined in the master plan,” she added, though she declined to say who that other party might be.
The job creation goals tied to OLF-8 have a significant historical context. Triumph Gulf Coast provided more than $14 million in funding to develop infrastructure at OLF-8, with the expectation of high-wage job creation that would align with the master plan's vision of balanced development. If the county fails to live up to those goals, it might have to forfeit this funding.
The light industrial scenario analyzed by the Haas Center corresponded directly to three projects that have been courted in recent months by FloridaWest. This includes two companies, code-named "Project Dynamo" and "Project Meridiem," that had previously submitted offers to the county. The FloridaWest proposals formed the basis of the assumptions used in the economic impact analysis, Gislason said.
Gislason emphasized that OLF-8 is one part of a larger strategy focused on diversifying the region's economy to be less reliant on tourism and the military.
"If government spending declines in defense, then there is a real possibility that we'll see a reduction in jobs in Escambia County specifically," she said. "So we need to plan for that day, whether it's six months from now or six years or decades away."
"What we're interested in is identifying targeted sectors of our economy that bring wealth from outside the community," she added. "Organizations like retail centers, restaurants, attorney's offices, they're vital to our economic landscape. However, they're utilizing money that is generated and created here locally."
Manufacturing and distribution centers, on the other hand, could grow the economic pie, much like the positive impact Navy Federal Credit Union has already had in the area.
Community Concerns
The potential sale of OLF-8 has sparked differing views within the community, especially among residents of the immediately surrounding area, known as Beulah. Many are concerned that prioritizing light industrial and, especially, warehousing projects could cause increased truck traffic, noise, and pollution, fundamentally altering the character of the area. Residents have also expressed anxiety about the kinds of jobs such developments might create — whether they will offer adequate pay and withstand the onslaught of automation.
One of the more controversial proposals has been Project Dynamo, which would involve establishing a distribution center on part of OLF-8. Although FloridaWest has released few details publicly, rumors that Amazon might be behind Project Dynamo have heightened anxieties about increased traffic and automation, as well as whether the development aligns with the community's vision for the site. The use of non-disclosure agreements by FloridaWest has added to the community’s distrust, as many feel excluded from the decision-making process.
Gislason addressed some of these concerns, emphasizing that economic development leaders are focusing on attracting 'clean jobs' that do not involve emissions or discharge from facilities.
"I don't imagine there will be a time when they recruit smokestacks and chemical companies that deplete our natural resources," she said.
She added that the "average" salary for the jobs created under the light industrial scenario would be $55,000 to $60,000 per year, and pointed to the Marcus Pointe Commerce Park as a nearby example of where industrial and residential uses have been thoughtfully integrated.
"We're not asking to deviate from the existing master plan," Gislason said. "We're asking to adhere to that master plan and allow further development for job creation."
