SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Yesterday, the Justice Department announced criminal charges against Cuba's former President Raúl Castro. The indictment is the latest move by the Trump administration to ratchet up pressure on Cuba's decades-old communist government. NPR justice correspondent Ryan Lucas is following this and joins us now. Hey, Ryan.
RYAN LUCAS, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.
DETROW: So the Trump administration has been clear that it wants to see change in Cuba. How does the indictment against Raúl Castro fit into that broader goal?
LUCAS: Well, look, you're absolutely right. The administration hasn't minced its words about Cuba. President Trump, for example, has said in recent months that Cuba will fall and that, quote, "the U.S. will be there to help them." The administration has taken several actions to increase pressure on the Cuban government. It has, perhaps most notably, imposed, in essence, a blockade on the island that has cut off fuel shipments. The economy in Cuba already was in really bad shape. It's taken a huge hit. The U.S. also has imposed new sanctions, and now we have this indictment against Raúl Castro. Now, the charges stem from the downing of two U.S. aircraft in 1996. Renata Segura is an expert with the International Crisis Group. She says the indictment sends a clear message.
RENATA SEGURA: So I think this is just a signaling from Washington that they are very serious about looking for dramatic changes in both politics and economics in Cuba, and that they're going to be willing to go to any lengths to get those.
DETROW: Any lengths to bring about dramatic change in Cuba. Could that include the sort of military action that the administration took earlier this year in Venezuela?
LUCAS: Well, look, there are certainly parallels. In the Venezuela case, the Trump administration built up a large military presence in the Caribbean. It spent months blowing up suspected drug boats there. It put a ton of pressure on Venezuela - Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to leave power. And then in January, the U.S. military conducted that surprise raid in Caracas, captured Maduro and his wife, and brought them to New York to face narcoterrorism charges. With Cuba, the Trump administration also has ramped up pressure on the island, squeezed it economically, and now we have the Castro indictment, which some people certainly see as a prelude to potential military action.
Cuba's president, in fact, yesterday accused the U.S. of trying to create a pretext to attack the country. Now, potential U.S. military action could target just Castro or it could target Cuba more generally. But either way, experts say it's unclear that the Cuban government would respond the same way that Venezuela's did after Maduro's ouster.
DETROW: Tell me more about what you mean by that.
LUCAS: Well, in Venezuela, after Maduro was removed, his former vice president took his place. She largely has been cooperating with the U.S. She's made some changes to open up the economy. She's freed some political prisoners. But much of the regime is, in many ways, basically still in place. Segura told me she doesn't think that Cuba's communist government, which has held power since 1959, would cut a deal like Venezuela's did.
SEGURA: I think that the Cubans know that what's at stake is their existence as a regime. You know, it is the end, perhaps, of the revolution.
LUCAS: In other words, this is an existential crisis, and she says the communist government may be willing to endure a lot of economic pain to keep its grip on power. Now, on the U.S. front, it's also unclear that Cuban Americans, many of whom have been pushing to topple Cuba's government for decades, would settle for an arrangement that leaves the Communist Party in power in Havana.
DETROW: What has the Trump administration said about its broader plans?
LUCAS: Well, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked today about the likelihood of the use of military force in Cuba. He said the U.S. has engaged in talks with the Cuban government, but he said in the past, Cuba has just played for time. And he said that's not going to happen now. He said the Trump administration is focused on this issue. Now, he also said the administration would prefer a negotiated solution, but he said the likelihood of that happening now, given who he says we're dealing with right now in Cuba, he says that the likelihood of that is not high. So he very much seems to be leaving all options on the table.
DETROW: Ryan Lucas, thank you so much.
LUCAS: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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