Hurricane Beryl marked a dramatic start for this year’s hurricane season. The storm rapidly intensified into a strong Category 5 before wreaking havoc across the Caribbean and causing widespread flooding in Houston and elsewhere along the Gulf Coast.
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Though Pensacola was spared the brunt of Beryl’s wrath, it was a stark reminder of the growing threat posed by climate change.
"The strongest storms are getting stronger and will continue to get stronger," climatologist David Zierden said in June. "With a warmer ocean, a warmer and more moist atmosphere, it provides more fuel or potential for these storms to grow into real monsters."
Zierden, who is the chief climate scientist for the state of Florida, made his remarks at a resiliency seminar in Pensacola just one week before Beryl emerged as a tropical depression. Within four days, it had become a Category 5 hurricane.
Zierden said the increasingly rapid intensification of Beryl and other storms was one of the most concerning effects of our changing climate.
"This rapid intensification, especially right before landfall, is a real forecasting problem," he said, "because the Hurricane Center and the models have gotten a lot better at forecasting the track or the path of hurricanes, but we're still lagging behind in being able to predict the intensity."
The consequences of this uncertainty could be devastating.
A study this spring by the city of Pensacola identified 12 major flooding hotspots where critical infrastructure is at high risk due to climate change, sea level rise, and extreme weather. About 4,500 critical assets are located within these high-risk zones, with 323 of them classified as "extremely vulnerable." These assets are essential to the daily functioning of the city and their compromise could lead to significant disruptions.
Given these findings, Pensacola officials are considering several measures to tackle stormwater management challenges head-on. These measures include significant revisions to the Land Development Code, hardening parts of the city’s waterfront, and increasing stormwater service fees. The Pensacola City Council is expected to consider all three proposals at a meeting next week.
Speaking at a press conference Monday, Mayor D.C. Reeves said he anticipated that overhauling the land development code would bring challenges.
“It will not be an easy process," he said. "There will be disagreements ... but the greater good of ... helping us alleviate some of the issues that we have is very, very necessary.”
We already have a sense of what kinds of changes might be coming.
Earlier this year, the city hired a consultant to review the existing land development code. The consultants delivered their recommendations in April, including a number of strategies to address flooding and stormwater management. Now, the city is looking to spend just less than $390,000 to hire a firm to implement those recommendations.
The proposed LDC revisions include strategies for mitigating risk in areas that are vulnerable to climate impacts and encouraging higher-density development in areas at lower risk. This could include regulations to encourage green stormwater systems like bioswales, absorbent rain gardens, and pervious surfaces, as well as native and drought-tolerant landscaping and more shade trees to combat urban heat island effects in parking lots.
While the city is looking at updating the LDC to facilitate more systemic, long-term changes, officials are also considering near-term opportunities.
Next week, the city council will also consider reallocating just less than $100,000 in Local Option Sales Tax funds to develop renderings and cost estimates for a new seawall and living shoreline project in the area of Wayside Park, which is one of the hotspots identified in the vulnerability assessment.
This area, which includes the primary evacuation route for Southern Escambia County, will experience intense tidal flooding by the year 2100. The city intends to use the renderings and cost estimates to apply for a large federal grant that would pay for the actual construction.
The mayor noted that the city currently lacks the resources to pay for this or other recommendations of the vulnerability assessment or, even, the matching funds to go after federal and state funding that could help close the gap. For that reason, he is proposing to increase stormwater service fees by roughly 50%.
If approved by the council next week, this increase would be expected to generate around $5.18 million for FY 2025, which will be used to maintain service levels, purchase necessary equipment, and fund critical infrastructure improvements like those at Wayside. Reeves said these changes were necessary, even if some might not welcome them.
"We understand increasing costs on our citizens is a heavy lift," he said. "We understand that, but also understand ... this is us trying to true up to where we need to be, where we can — truly, no pun intended — keep our head above water."
The Pensacola City Council will meet starting at 5:30 p.m. on Thursday, Aug. 8, at Pensacola City Hall, located at 222 W. Main Street. You can access the full agenda and backup material from their website.
