Florida's hot! Where & when will rain and storms return?

Florida continues to be a hot spot in the nation with many cities across the Peninsula reaching new record hot temperatures, or at the very least tying old records.

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Why so hot?

A high-pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere has been responsible for the extreme heat taking over the Sunshine State. This is what in meteorology is called a blocking pattern. A high-pressure system between two lows, with little movement for several days. When this happens, the atmosphere becomes stagnant and the weather pattern can remain the same for days, if not weeks. In this case, the main character is the heat. A high-pressure system causes the air to sink through the atmosphere and warm as it sinks. Adding winds from the south near the surface gives the perfect recipe for extreme heat, which is precisely what we've had.

The forecast

Wednesday will continue to be hot. Temperatures come close to record values in Vero Beach, where a high of 95 would break the record established in 2015. Remember that although your city might not break or tie records, it doesn't mean it won't be hot. Temperatures across the state, across North Florida will be around the mid-90s, Central Florida in the mid to upper 90s (higher end of the range across interior areas), and South Florida will be between the low 90s along the coasts, but close to the mid-90s inland.
Humidity will make these already hot temperatures feel even hotter, uncomfortable, and dangerous for those outdoors without proper hydration and air conditioning breaks.

Across the Panhandle and North Florida, temperatures could cool off during the afternoon, dropping to the mid to upper 80s, due to clouds and rain showers moving through. In the afternoon, there is a marginal chance for isolated severe storms along I-10 between Tallahassee and Jacksonville. The main threat will be damaging winds from the storms that turn severe.

Any more relief on the way?

The high will stay in place through the rest of the week, keeping the record heat in place. A cold front will try to break through the state on Thursday, creating more atmospheric mixing. This could create more instability and produce storms, mainly across some parts of Central Florida through Lake Okeechobee. Some storms could also be possible across Southwest Florida, where the drought is extreme.

For South Florida, Thursday is a dangerous day with record heat possibly breaking a new mark in West Palm Beach and tying the record value in Miami, with 95 and 94 degrees, respectively. Friday, the record heat values remain laser-focused in southeast Florida, where temperatures between Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach could range between 93 and 94. The reason for the hot focus is the winds coming from the southwest. As the winds travel over land, the air has more time to warm, bringing more heat over the southeast locations. The coast would stay cooler if the winds were from the east or southeast. So in this instance, Thursday and Friday afternoon temperatures, although hot, will be in the low 90s across Southwest Florida, due to the onshore flow.

The weather will continue to be hot. Although the upper-level high pressure moves south over the Yucatan Peninsula, it will likely retract closer to Florida over the weekend, giving us another push of the heat. This second (or the return of the first) heatwave will come, and stay over much of Florida through the middle of next week, and likely break by the end of the week, possibly by Thursday. This is also when the chance for showers and storms returns across Florida, more noticeably.