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Waves Of Rain And Storms Make A Return In Time For The Weekend

Heaviest Rain Is Most Likely In North Florida
Heaviest Rain Is Most Likely In North Florida

Update as of 9:30 AM Thursday:

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected this morning over the Panhandle before moving to the Nature Coast, Lake City, and Gainesville areas Thursday afternoon. The storms are likely to weaken as they encounter a drier air mass, but a few showers could make it as far south as the Interstate 4 corridor and as far east as the First Coast around the Thursday rush hour. Widespread, damaging weather is unlikely, but a few reports of hail and gusty winds are possible along the coast of the Panhandle late Thursday morning into early afternoon.

A few showers and storms are possible Friday along the I-4 corridor and Space Coast near a stalled out front. Another batch of widespread rain and storms is likely over the Panhandle late Friday night into Saturday, where a few stronger storms capable of large hail are possible. These storms may slide south into North and Central Florida Saturday night, Sunday, and Monday with periodic downpours and the chance for occasional strong storms.


Original Story from 10:00 AM Wednesday:

The recent dry stretch is likely to come to an end late this week into this weekend as an unsettled pattern returns to central and north Florida. The rain may be heavy enough to produce areas of flash flooding, particularly in the Florida Panhandle.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely as soon as Wednesday afternoon from Pensacola to Marianna and Panama City before weakening as they move east into drier air over the peninsula. A second round of thunderstorms is expected as soon as dawn Thursday morning in the western Panhandle, then moving eastward into the Tallahassee area around midday Thursday. The storms are forecast to weaken, but showers and some rumbles are likely into the Nature Coast, North-Central, and Northeast Florida Thursday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms could develop as far south as the Interstate 4 corridor Thursday afternoon with downpours and lightning, but they shouldn't be as widespread as the weather expected over North Florida.


A few of the storms are capable of producing hail from about the Tallahassee area and westward on Thursday. However, heavy rain and pockets of flash flooding will be the bigger concern, especially west of the Apalachicola River, where rainfall over the past 30 days has been running about 150 percent of average. It has been much drier from about Tallahassee to Jacksonville, where rainfall has been about half of average since mid-March. In these areas, the rainfall may be more welcome.

The unsettled pattern is likely to continue through the weekend as a front stalls out over Florida. Periodic rain and thunderstorms are most likely from about the I-4 corridor northward into North Florida and the Panhandle. The most likely area for heavy rain is closer to the I-10 corridor, where 1.5 to 3 inches of rain is forecast from Thursday through Sunday. Pockets of heavy rain from thunderstorms are also possible around Tampa/St Pete, Orlando, Daytona, and the Space Coast, but it may not be as concentrated compared to areas farther north until the early or middle of next week when another round of atmospheric energy arrives.

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Ray Hawthorne